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对生猪养殖企业规模扩张形势的分析

www.jcgod.com2019-07-16
钱柜777国际

According to the announcement data of listed companies, the sales volume of pigs (excluding piglets and breeding pigs, the same below) of 9 listed companies such as Wen's shares at the end of June totaled 22.816 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, of which sales in June totaled 354.6. Wantou, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous month. Although the sales performance of various enterprises is quite different, most of them have maintained rapid growth. Among them, Wenshi, Makino, Tianbang, New Hope and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate are respectively 13.7. %, 22.6%, 69.0% and 10.6%.

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Table 1 Sales volume of pigs in listed companies

The rapid growth of listed companies is in stark contrast to the overall shrinkage of the country's hog farming scale. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2019, 188 million pigs were slaughtered, down 5.1% year-on-year, and pig slaughter in the second quarter depends on 2018. From June to August, the number of sows that can be used for breeding sows. Considering the continued shrinkage of the sows at the time, coupled with the adverse effects of the African swine fever epidemic, it is estimated that pigs will be slaughtered by 116 million in the second quarter, down 13.5% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the number of live pigs was about 305 million, down 8% year-on-year. This is the first half of the last 10 years, and the proportion of the above-mentioned nine listed companies rose from 5.5% in the same period last year to 7.5%. In terms of weight, the average weight of the slaughter in June was 106.4 kg/head, down 5.5% from the previous month and down 1.7% year-on-year. The weights of Wenshi, Tianbang and Jinxinnong were the lowest this year, indicating that the scale enterprises were also affected by the epidemic. The adverse effects of the threat, in the context of a significant increase in prices, there is still a phenomenon of early release, but to a lesser extent.

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Table 2 Listed companies' pigs slaughter weight

xx根据“畜牧年鉴”统计,2016年共有4,572个农场,总人口超过1万人。估计总产量为9000万头,占全国总量的13-15%。与2016年相比,2018年上市公司总数超过5200万,增幅超过60%。假设上市公司的增长率可以代表大型企业的整体情况,则意味着它们在2016 - 2018年两年内在整个行业中的比例至少增加了50%,即已达到由于中小型农业的水平超过20%。农业规模是净减少。 2019年,虽然它也受到疫情的影响,但大型企业的能力和政策支持远远强于散户投资者。只要防治工作做得好,就没有大问题,也不会重复黑龙江欧亚畜牧业和江苏濮阳家。在中国养猪场的情况下继续扩大产能仍然是可行的。最近的一些大型企业的养猪生产投资项目和养猪生产计划目标详见下表:

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表3上市企业养猪投资项目

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表4部分企业生猪(10,000头)的规划目标

从上面可以看出,如果这些企业的投资项目和规划目标得以实现,中国将有更多的猪和水产养殖企业在温和马库丹之后拥有超过1000万头,然后区分猪规模养殖和零售投资者。这种现象将进一步加剧,预计工业集中度将继续增加。预计到2019年猪场超过10,000头的比例预计将达到25%,预计到2020年接近30%。工业集中度快速对生猪市场的影响仍有待进一步观察和分析,但有一点是肯定的:随着规模的增加,猪周期的波动性不会减少。根据美国的经验,虽然该行业的规模达到了90%的高水平,但猪周期仍然明显,波动程度并不逊于中国:

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表5美国猪肉价格的周期性波动

对于中国市场,我们认为虽然规模程度正在迅速增加,但从业人员数量过多,零售业变革的模式需要很长时间。市场价格发现机制仍然严重缺乏,政府的调控更加有限,导致农民的市场判断和行为模式的强烈不合理性和盲目性。农民的平均养殖规模显着扩大后,具有较强的游戏能力,使得市场供应能力的增加和减少更加频繁和复杂,并且在高利润的诱惑下(反之亦然,在大的情况下)损失)在威胁下),即使是大型企业的决策运作也不容易保持长期合理性。增加非洲猪瘟流行病的超级变量已经加剧而不是减缓市场波动的程度。因此,在一致看涨的市场氛围下仍有必要保持谨慎态度。 (作者徐洪志)

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